Editorial
Best Emerging Markets to Invest in 2026: How Tariffs Redrew the Map
October 5, 2026 - Tariff access and near-shore capture reordered the 2026 Emerging Markets ranking, making bankability rather than forecast returns the deciding measure.
Editorial

March 2026 marks the shift from chokepoint economics to Cape of Good Hope economics for global port and airport financing decisions.
Being on a newly relevant freight lane and being a bankable project are two distinct conditions with separate design requirements for port and airport financing.
Nigeria's operating-rights-plus-multilateral-debt template, Albania's blended EU and IFI package, and Guinea-Bissau's early-stage World Bank pathway represent three pathways to close.
Clean mobility bundled with core port or airport development qualifies for green and blended finance instruments that a standalone PPP cannot access.
The freight rerouting window for port and airport financing closes as each competing developer reaches financial close, tightening terms available to later entrants.
The March 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure and continued Suez disruption have repositioned Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria, and Albania inside global shipping and logistics networks, creating a route-shaped opening for port and airport financing in Emerging Markets. This analysis is written for infrastructure developers and operating-agreement holders active in West Africa and the Western Balkans who need to translate freight relevance into a bankable financing package. Institutional and multilateral funding is now flowing toward projects designed to lender requirements first, and the developers who move on this window secure terms that later entrants will not.
Port and airport financing in Emerging Markets refers to the arrangement of long-term debt, PPP-backed funding, or blended finance instruments that meet the requirements of Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) and institutional lenders for transport projects tied to trade and freight lanes.
Freight rerouting since the March 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure has redirected institutional and Development Finance Institution attention toward secondary ports and airports across West Africa and the Western Balkans. Developers that design their port and airport financing to lender requirements first capture the window before it consolidates around the first movers.
Iranian forces declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping on March 4, 2026, and shipping lines have since rebuilt permanent schedules around the Cape of Good Hope routing. Continued Suez Canal disruption compounds the shift. Institutional allocators watching container flows now read the reallocation as a structural signal, not a passing anomaly, and the sectors attracting private capital across Emerging Markets reflect the new geography of trade.
Oil flow through the Strait fell from 20.7 to 14.6 million barrels per day between 4Q25 and 1Q26. Crude and condensate volumes drove most of the drop, falling from 15.2 to 10.7 million barrels per day. When the closure took effect, more than 34,000 ships diverted in the first four weeks, with an estimated daily trade cost in excess of US$4B.
Container capacity absorbed a direct hit. Approximately 170 containerships totaling around 450,000 TEU sat inside the strait, roughly 1.4% of the global fleet, while longer sailing distances around the Cape of Good Hope absorbed approximately 2.5MM TEU of global container shipping capacity. Rerouting around southern Africa added days to sailing times and raised charter costs across the Indian Ocean basin.
The trade lanes most exposed to the new routing sit across West Africa and the Western Balkans. Ports in Guinea-Bissau and Nigeria receive vessels routed via the Cape instead of the Suez transit that once dominated. Airports serving both regions absorb cargo diverted from congested primary hubs, and rail links across Albania move volumes that previously traveled the Eastern Mediterranean.
Projects that once sat outside the port and airport financing conversation have moved inside it. Money is following the trade lane, but the terms remain contingent on how each transaction is designed.
Port and airport financing qualifies for institutional or DFI backing when its risk allocation, revenue design, and operating rights sit within lender-defined boundaries. Bankability requires an operating agreement long enough to amortize debt, off-taker or user-fee revenue that can be modeled, sponsor equity commensurate with scale, and risk mitigation instruments that address currency, political, and construction risk directly.
Within Africa’s transport financing mix, road construction and maintenance absorbed over 29% of transport sector financing between 2021 and 2023, compared to 7% to 8% for rail and 2% to 7% for ports. Ports and airports rely on DFI and blended instruments in place of conventional sovereign allocation.
Route relevance and bankability are not the same condition. Being on a trade lane that now attracts freight does not by itself qualify a port or airport for institutional debt.
Institutional investors and Development Finance Institutions distinguish between likely traffic and contractually anchored traffic. Most transactions stall before financial close because of this design gap. Aviation demand growth across Emerging Markets illustrates the same pattern: rising passenger volumes do not automatically translate into bankable revenue if the underlying operating rights lack a structured off-take framework.
The private-participation data confirms the divergence. Airport investment nearly tripled year-on-year to US$2.7B in 2024, while port investment fell to US$1.8B from US$4.9B the prior year. Structured, DFI-aligned approaches match this trajectory better than sovereign-only channels.
We have structured port, airport, and rail financing across more than 100 countries, and the deals that close fastest are the ones built to DFI requirements first. – Bart Turtelboom, Chairman & CEO of Delphos.
The choice between a concession and direct project finance determines most of the downstream design decisions, and the two approaches map differently against Development Finance Institution participation criteria.
A concession assigns long-term operating rights to a project company while the underlying facility remains publicly owned, and financiers lend against those cash flows and the operating term. Direct project finance raises debt against the project’s own contracted revenues, with recourse limited to the project’s assets. This structure applies to greenfield transactions where sovereign backing is thinner. Both approaches reach financial close in Emerging Markets.
The choice is determined by which counterparty absorbs demand risk. Development Finance Institution participation, in either approach, is contingent on a defensible base-case revenue projection and adequate risk mitigation.
Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning signed a cooperation agreement with IFC on February 3, 2026, targeting the estimated US$14.2B in annual urban infrastructure requirements over the next decade. IFC committed a record US$71.7B to private companies and financial institutions globally in fiscal year 2025, operating in more than 100 countries. That balance-sheet capacity anchors commercial debt across these transactions.
Clean mobility enters the same package as the core port or airport project. A port that electrifies its handling equipment, or an airport connected to a new electrified rail link, qualifies for green and blended finance instruments that a standalone PPP does not.
Climate tech businesses across clean energy, battery storage, and sustainable mobility attracted US$56B in the first nine months of 2025, more than all of 2024 combined. The year 2026 marks a pivotal funding shift for Emerging Markets sustainable finance, coinciding with severe cuts in international public climate finance. That combination raises the importance of blended packages that pair official credit enhancement with commercial debt in the financing stack.
Port and airport financing looks different in each of the three markets. Guinea-Bissau requires blended packages built around regional integration and concessional pricing. Nigeria demands concessions attractive to commercial co-financiers, while Albania favors blended EU and IFI packages aligned with Pan-European Corridor VIII. Developers should prioritize the approach their market’s active financier pool can execute.
The bankability framework applies to each market differently. Project mix, active official presence, and existing PPP frameworks vary enough that a template from one country does not port cleanly to another. The pattern is visible in the transactions closing this cycle.
Nigeria’s pipeline demonstrates the operating-rights-plus-multilateral-debt model at scale for port and airport financing. Nigeria and the African Development Bank signed a US$7B aviation partnership for a five-year overhaul, while the federal government signed a GBP£746MM UK-backed financing agreement for the redevelopment of Lagos ports at Apapa and Tin Can Island, alongside a 45-year concession secured by Mediterranean Shipping Company for a new container terminal at Snake Island. The concession-plus-official-debt template is what commercial financiers now recognize and price against, and it runs in parallel with Africa power sector financing activity that shapes broader trade lane economics.
Guinea-Bissau sits earlier in the bankability curve. Electricity trade capacity rose from zero to 170,000 kVA through the OMVG regional transmission network. A new World Bank Country Partnership Framework for FY26 to FY30 is in preparation. The port angle is directly costed.
About 70% of the road network is still unpaved. Port and customs operations at the Port of Bissau are inefficient. Targeted logistics investment could generate about US$30MM in annual efficiency gains at the Port of Bissau. For developers in this market, financing runs through blended packages combining World Bank instruments with regional official participation.
Albania’s port and airport financing template is the tightest blended-finance package of the three. The EBRD extended a EUR€30MM sovereign loan to Albania, matched by a EUR€30MM EIB loan and EUR€60MM in EU grants, for the reconstruction and electrification of the 34km Durrës to Rrogozhinë railway, part of Pan-European Corridor VIII.
A further EUR€35.5MM in Western Balkans Investment Framework grants complements a EUR€36.9MM EBRD loan for the Tirana to Durrës line and a new 7.4km rail link to Rinas International Airport, with Durrës named Albania’s largest port. Rail, airport, and port move as a single package inside one financing envelope, and further reading on Balkans infrastructure investment provides parallel context.
Delphos brings four decades of transaction experience to port and airport financing across Europe, Africa, and Latin America. Three transactions illustrate the range across geographies and project types.
ONEX Elefsis Shipyards transformed a Greek maritime and energy hub inside a single US$125MM DFC-backed package, tying working-port operations to a renewable energy component. The transaction is the closest structural analogue to what Albania now needs: a single-envelope package covering a working port and adjacent clean energy assets, priced against DFC’s development criteria instead of pure commercial return.
Prumo Logística extended the track record to South America. The Brazilian mandate arranged funding for a private port designed to reduce environmental risk during transshipment operations, and the environmental-risk mitigation architecture built into that package is directly relevant to how clean mobility elements can be priced inside a West African or Balkan transaction today.
Freetown Lungi Airport is the direct West African precedent. Delphos structured and globally distributed a US$150MM DFC-backed loan for a BOT airport concession in Sierra Leone, closing the exact template Nigeria’s airport transactions now require: sovereign-backed concession, DFC anchor debt, commercial co-financiers layered above.
The distance between a route-relevant project and a financeable one is where port and airport financing work earns its return. Delphos has mobilized more than US$20B across 600+ transactions since 1987, arranging Capital Raising and providing Transaction Advisory for developers translating trade lane relevance into a package that meets DFI requirements. The company works with developers and concession holders in West Africa and the Western Balkans on port, airport, and clean mobility projects where financing choices determine which teams close first.
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The term refers to the arrangement of long-term debt, blended finance instruments, or operating-rights-backed funding that meets multilateral and institutional lender requirements for transport projects. It covers both greenfield builds and brownfield expansions across ports, airports, and connecting logistics facilities along trade lanes.
Shipping lines are treating the Hormuz closure and continued Suez disruption as structural, not temporary, with effects amplifying as they move from gas into chemicals and food production.The financing window narrows differently: each transaction closed by a competing developer tightens terms available to later entrants.
A concession grants long-term operating rights to a project company while ownership of the underlying facility remains with the government. Direct project finance raises debt against the project's own contracted revenues, with recourse limited to project assets. Nigeria's airport model illustrates the concession-plus-DFI-debt structure.
The International Finance Corporation (IFC), African Development Bank (AfDB), and U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) are the most active in West African port and airport financing. Nigeria's US$14.2B IFC cooperation and US$7B AfDB aviation partnership illustrate the scale, and multilateral participation typically de-risks a transaction for commercial co-financiers.
Clean mobility such as electrified rail links and low-emission port equipment bundle into the same financing package as the core project. Albania's Durrës to Rrogozhinë rail electrification, paired with the new Rinas Airport rail link, shows how the bundling qualifies deals for green and blended finance instruments.
Foreign currencies, counterparty, and off-taker risk sit at the top of the list, alongside construction risk and the possibility that shipping lanes normalize. Multilateral-backed instruments including political risk insurance and partial credit guarantees address most factors and are built into the financing package from the outset.
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