Editorial
Best Emerging Markets to Invest in 2026: How Tariffs Redrew the Map
October 5, 2026 - Tariff access and near-shore capture reordered the 2026 Emerging Markets ranking, making bankability rather than forecast returns the deciding measure.
Editorial

Energy project finance has moved from generation to the system layer, where grid capacity now determines how fast assets reach operation.
Project award grants the right to build. Lenders apply a separate test before funding, and clearing it is what closes a transaction.
A competitive tariff proves procurement worked. It does not prove the asset is bankable to an institutional lender.
Lenders price storage and cross-border transmission apart from generation, because the revenue base is contracted differently and carries merchant exposure.
The first blended transaction sets terms the market then reuses, and refinancing later hands operating assets to institutional lenders.
Energy project finance across MENA and the wider Emerging Markets has shifted from generation to the system layer. This analysis addresses energy-infrastructure sponsors, developers, and independent power producers (IPPs) holding awarded assets or a live pipeline in the region. The thesis is direct: funding is available, and prepared, bankable projects at the system layer are the scarce input.
Energy project finance is funding structured around an asset’s own cash flows, contracts, and allocated risk, not a sponsor’s balance sheet. Repayment depends on the asset reaching operation and holding it.
Regional funding pools have expanded faster than the grid and connection capacity is able to absorb new generation. Energy project finance in MENA therefore competes for a narrow set of assets that hold a signed offtake, secured land, and resolved permits. Award volume outruns the supply of investable structures.
Global energy transition investment reached a record US$2.3T in 2025, up 8%, while MENA energy demand grew roughly 2.5 times the global rate between 2000 and 2023.
Solar PV capacity across the region is set to increase tenfold by 2035, a rise of 200 GW. Renewables would reach one-quarter of generation, up from 6% in 2024. Yet 90% of transition investment still lands in advanced economies and China, a split that shapes where institutional capital deploys.
Yudy Sanjaya, a Director at Delphos, attended Middle East Energy 2026. Clean energy investment for generation in the Middle East runs at roughly US$10B in 2025, while Saudi Arabia targets 50% renewable electricity by 2030. Renewables were 2.2% of the Saudi mix in 2024. Sponsors reading that spread are pricing market-by-market power bankability instead of headline megawatt targets.
Energy project finance converts an awarded asset into a financed one when risk sits with the party able to carry it. Conditions precedent must be resolved and the revenue stream modeled to a credit committee’s standard. The award confirms the right to build. Financial close confirms a lender will fund it.
Annual electricity-generation investment in developing countries must more than double by 2035, from US$280B to US$630B, yet those countries attract just 20% of global electricity investment. Risk perception, not money supply, explains why projects fail to close after award.
The cost of capital for renewable power and batteries in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) is at least double the advanced-economy level. That premium narrows as legal and contractual risk allocation tightens. Offtake security, currency terms, permitting, and land title are the clauses that close the structuring gap.
A competitive tariff is not a bankable asset. Onshore wind reached a levelized cost of US$0.034/kWh, 53% below the cheapest fossil alternative. The spread runs from US$27/MWh in China to US$52/MWh in Germany.
Procurement efficiency sets the price, and the financial model for a renewable energy project sets whether that price can be financed. Project preparation closes the rest: permits, a signed offtake, secured land, and a modeled downside.
“We have seen across Emerging Markets that capital is rarely the obstacle. What decides financial close is whether a project has been structured to a standard institutional lenders will underwrite.” – Bart Turtelboom, Chairman & CEO of Delphos.
System-side assets do not carry a single-technology power purchase agreement (PPA), so revenue comes from capacity payments, arbitrage, availability, and grid services. That widens the financing options for large-scale renewable energy projects. Lenders size debt against that mix, so energy project financing for system-side assets turns on how much revenue sits under contract.
A US$571.8MM debt package led by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) finances Abydos II, a 1,000 MW solar plant with a 600 MWh battery in Aswan, Egypt. The same partnership closed a US$72MM package for Kom Ombo, Egypt’s first utility-scale battery, a 300 MWh unit inside a 500 MWac solar plant. Storage moved from pilot to financeable in two deals.
Interconnection follows a different logic. The Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (GCCIA) expansion with the UAE raises transmission capacity to 3,500 MW from 2,400 MW. Cross-border links of that kind earn from wheeling charges and capacity reservation, not from a generation offtake. The table below compares how solar, battery storage, and cross-border transmission each reach a financeable structure in renewable energy project finance.
How Each Energy Asset Reaches a Bankable Structure
| Attribute | Solar Generation | Battery Storage | Cross-Border Interconnection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MENA reference | Abydos II (Egypt) | Kom Ombo battery (Egypt) | GCCIA-UAE link |
| Capacity | 1,000 MW | 300 MWh | 2,400 to 3,500 MW |
| Financing structure | IFC-led debt, US$571.8MM | IFC-led debt, US$72MM | State / utility |
| Revenue model | PPA | Capacity + arbitrage | Wheeling and capacity charges |
| Principal bankability risk | Offtaker credit | Merchant price | Counterparty / currency |
| Market maturity | Scaling | Early | Emerging |
Private finance mobilized by official development finance peaked at US$70B in 2023, with middle-income countries taking more than 50% over 2020 to 2023. Blended structures work because development finance institutions (DFIs) price risk commercial lenders have not yet priced. A DFI-backed deal in Kenya set terms that later transactions used as the reference. Once the asset operates, refinancing recycles sponsor equity, and capital structuring hands long-tenor risk to institutional lenders.
The sector logic in energy project finance holds across markets, and the Delphos track record across Emerging Markets shows where it has been executed.
The Feasibility Study for Two Cross-Border Transmission Interconnectors in ASEAN carried US$2MM from the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) for a 234 km subsea line between Indonesia and Malaysia, sized at 1,400 to 2,000 MW.
The Offshore Wind Financing Study for the World Bank and the IFC spanned markets including Türkiye and Azerbaijan, and found that US$15B in concessional climate financing could accelerate offshore wind deployment across ten Emerging Markets.
The 1,000 MW Nuclear Power Plant mandate in Armenia, funded by USAID, covered ownership structure evaluation, a pro forma financial model, tariff analysis, and a financing strategy. That preparation scope converts a mandate into something a lender can assess.
Starsight closed a US$20MM senior long-term debt facility for an operating commercial-and-industrial solar platform in Nigeria and Ghana, the institutional takeout step applied to an operating asset.
Capital is competing for MENA energy assets ready to absorb it, and energy project finance rewards readiness built long before a lender sees the file. Transaction Advisory covers the feasibility, financial modeling, and structuring work that carries a grid, storage, or interconnection asset to a financeable standard. Capital Raising mobilizes the DFI, blended, and institutional layers that reach financial close. Delphos has mobilized more than US$20B in development finance since 1987, working with energy-infrastructure sponsors, developers, and IPPs whose counterparties are DFIs and institutional lenders.
Structure your awarded MENA project with Delphos and reach an investable transaction →
Lenders fund the asset, not the company behind it. Repayment comes from the project's own contracted cash flows, and security sits in its contracts and assets. Debt is sized against a modeled revenue stream, so the structure holds only once the plant operates.
Credit committees ask one question: will this asset generate contracted cash flow through the debt tenor. Answering it requires an investment-grade buyer, permits and land already secured, and a model that holds under a downside case.
Financing cost, not technology cost, is the binding constraint in higher-risk markets. The same turbine or panel costs more to finance where country risk is priced higher, which changes the tariff a project needs. Targeted de-risking, through guarantees or concessional tranches, is the lever.
A concessional tranche sits junior to commercial debt and absorbs the first loss, which lowers the risk commercial financiers carry. Once one deal proves the structure works in a given market, the discount narrows and later sponsors need less support.
Revenue arrives from capacity payments, price arbitrage, and grid services, a mix that carries merchant exposure a solar offtake does not. Lenders therefore size debt against a narrower contracted base and test the downside harder.
Development finance institutions provide long-tenor debt, political risk cover, and co-financing that commercial banks will not extend alone. Their participation also signals financeability to other financiers. In Emerging Markets, that signal often determines whether a transaction reaches financial close.
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