Editorial
Best Emerging Markets to Invest in 2026: How Tariffs Redrew the Map
October 5, 2026 - Tariff access and near-shore capture reordered the 2026 Emerging Markets ranking, making bankability rather than forecast returns the deciding measure.
Editorial

The global trade finance gap held at US$2.5T in 2025, unchanged since 2023 and double the 2017 level, concentrated in Emerging Markets.
Commodity trade finance funds the physical purchase, transport, and sale of raw goods, distinct from broader commodity finance covering reserves and project debt.
A DFI-anchored commodity trade finance vehicle pools export loans across many exporters, attracting co-lenders that would not underwrite them individually at competitive terms.
Near-shoring lifts Latin American export demand faster than commercial banks will finance it, opening a structural window for commodity trade finance vehicles.
The Crecera / LAEFF commodity trade finance facility raised US$50MM with the OPEC Fund, BAWAG, and IDB, reaching more than 10,000 exporters across four LATAM markets.
Commodity trade finance is the working capital that moves agricultural and raw-material exports through Emerging Markets, yet commercial banks price the segment out of reach for the borrowers positioned inside Latin America’s trade realignment. This blog examines how DFI-anchored commodity trade finance vehicles assemble capital that individual corporates cannot reach alone, using the Crecera / Latin America Export Finance Fund (LAEFF) transaction across Peru, Brazil, Colombia, and Uruguay as the template. It is written for export-oriented sponsors, agribusiness CFOs, and capital providers positioning against the near-shoring cycle.
Commodity trade finance is the financing that funds the physical purchase, transport, and sale of raw materials, designed to mitigate the price, performance, and collateral risks specific to bulk goods. It sits as a distinct discipline within broader commodity finance, which also covers reserve-based lending, project finance, and asset-backed arrangements.
Commodity trade finance funds the physical movement of raw materials from producer to buyer through instruments including pre-export loans, warehouse receipts, and receivables discounting. In Emerging Markets, commodity trade finance is underserved because commercial banks find the collateral hard to liquidate, transaction sizes uneconomical against compliance cost, and price volatility difficult to underwrite at competitive terms.
The scale of underserved demand is documented. The global trade finance gap held at US$2.5T in 2025, unchanged from 2023, and doubled between 2017 and 2025 with Emerging Market economies absorbing the largest share of the shortfall. Coverage patterns show where the shortfall concentrates. Trade and supply chain finance support 25% of trade on average in West Africa, and 10% in Central America, against at least 60% in advanced economies, and in Cambodia, Mexico, and Viet Nam, supply chain finance covers less than 1% of the raw materials and manufactured goods that cross borders.
Commodity trade finance funds the flow of physical goods between counterparties. It covers pre-shipment production, working capital against confirmed orders, and post-shipment receivables. Broader commodity finance includes reserve-based lending against proved reserves, project debt for extraction and processing assets, and long-tenor asset-backed arrangements. The distinction matters for how a facility is designed. Commodity trade finance instruments carry short tenors, self-liquidate from sale proceeds, and price against transaction-level collateral. Reserve-based and project debt carry multi-year tenors and repayment tied to asset performance. A borrower pricing a working-capital facility against a season’s harvest is inside commodity trade finance. A corporate raising long-tenor debt against reserves is not.
Two thirds of merchandise exports from Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay are raw commodities, and agriculture anchors 6.5% of regional GDP and 13% of employment through soy, coffee, and tropical-fruit trade. Commercial banks retreat from commodity trade finance in this segment for structural reasons. Transaction sizes at the SME borrower level do not clear the compliance and origination cost of a large bank, collateral in the form of harvested crop or warehoused ore is difficult to enforce and liquidate across jurisdictions, and price volatility between order and delivery erodes underwriting margins. SME rejection rates on trade finance applications ran at 40% in 2025, holding near the decade high while Large Corporate and Mid-Cap rejections rose to meet them. The route in for corporates that cannot meet commercial bank criteria is how agri-sponsors qualify for structured finance, a qualification framework built for the borrower profile the banks decline.
A commodity trade finance vehicle pools export loans across many borrowers and multiple geographies into a single portfolio, then anchors on a senior facility from a development finance institution. The DFI commitment de-risks the pool enough to attract co-lenders, commercial banks, insurers, and other DFIs, who would not underwrite them individually.
The mechanism is structural. Risk that no single creditor will hold becomes risk that a syndicate will price. Commodity trade finance carries default rates below 0.3% across 47MM+ transactions and US$23T+ in exposure, a performance record that supports underwriting once the pool is assembled. The senior-facility role belongs to development finance institutions. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), for example, provides long-tenor debt and equity through fund vehicles that commercial lenders will not match in Emerging Markets, deploying capital via qualified fund managers to address the private-capital shortfall.
The four instruments most used to finance Emerging Markets commodity trade finance flows differ across tenor, collateral basis, and who ultimately holds the risk:
Instrument | Typical Tenor | Collateral Basis | Risk Holder |
| Pre-export / pre-shipment finance | 30 to 180 days | Confirmed offtake order and production output | Creditor, with performance risk on the exporter |
| Receivables financing | 30 to 120 days | Invoiced receivable owed by the buyer | Creditor (recourse) or buyer (non-recourse) |
| Warehouse receipt financing | 30 to 270 days | Warehoused inventory under collateral manager control | Creditor, with operational risk on the warehouse operator |
| DFI-anchored commodity trade finance vehicle | 1 to 5 years at vehicle level, short at loan level | Diversified pool of pre-shipment and post-shipment loans across borrowers and geographies | DFI anchor plus co-lender syndicate |
Pre-export finance is working capital advanced before shipment, sized against a confirmed order and repaid from sale proceeds when the goods clear. Exporters use it to fund inputs, harvest labor, and processing costs that would otherwise stall production between order and delivery. Receivables financing sits on the other side of shipment. The exporter has invoiced the buyer and sells or discounts the receivable to accelerate cash. Both commodity trade finance instruments self-liquidate from a defined trade flow. Pre-export addresses production risk; receivables addresses payment timing. A single facility to one borrower often carries both.
A senior debt facility from a development finance institution changes the risk profile the co-lender sees. The DFI takes the senior commitment on preferred terms, absorbs first-loss exposure in tiered arrangements, and validates the sponsor through its own due diligence. Co-lenders including commercial banks, insurers, and other DFIs enter alongside on the strength of that commitment. Delphos experience across four continents shows capital structure determines close more consistently than borrower profile, and instrument selection determines outcomes once the anchor is placed. Currency exposure sits inside every commodity trade finance facility. Corporates earning in soles, reais, and Uruguayan pesos while borrowing in dollars carry a mismatch the design has to price, and pricing currency mismatch before term sheets is what separates facilities that close from those that renegotiate mid-syndication.
We have arranged capital across Latin America for decades, and the lesson holds: a fund that pools export risk and anchors on a development lender reaches producers no single bank will finance. – Bart Turtelboom, Chairman & CEO of Delphos.
Near-shoring redirects supply chains and foreign direct investment toward Latin American producers, lifting commodity trade volumes across the region’s export corridors. As export volumes accelerate, working capital and expansion capital requirements outrun what commercial banks will extend. The demand shift creates a wider addressable market for commodity trade finance vehicles than the region carried in the previous cycle. The region’s net agricultural surplus widened from US$25B in the 2002-2004 baseline to a projected US$110B by 2034, a trajectory that sets the size of the working-capital pool the trade-finance stack has to serve.
The trade signal is measurable. LAC goods exports rose 15.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026, building on 7.8% expansion in 2025, and Mesoamerica exports accelerated to 7.2% in 2025 from 3.8% the year before. South America carried the volume gain, with export volumes climbing 6.9% in 2024 and Uruguay up 25.5%. Soft-commodity price movements amplified the value line: coffee ran 49.9% higher year-on-year through January to November 2025, copper averaged +12.9%, and gold reached +42.2%. FDI patterns show the redirection under way, with LAC FDI down 12% in 2024 but new greenfield projects in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico signaling renewed investor interest. The trade fragmentation reshaping capital flows sits one altitude above the export line and points to the same conclusion.
The near-shoring cycle raises Latin American exporters into supply chains that previously ran through Asia. Agricultural corporates supplying processed inputs, protein, and soft commodities capture the first-order effect. The second-order effect reaches the commodity trade finance stack in the form of more transactions, larger tickets, and longer supplier relationships. Doubling trade and supply chain finance coverage could raise exports and imports by up to 8.9% in Honduras, 7.8% in Guatemala, and 7.4% in Mexico, adding more than US$90B in combined trade volume. The financing gap is the binding constraint on how much of the realignment converts.
Fund managers assessing Latin American commodity trade finance look at three variables. First, the pipeline: whether the sponsor has a repeatable origination channel across multiple borrowers rather than a single-borrower thesis. Second, the senior position: whether a development finance institution has taken senior exposure or issued a guarantee, which sets the terms co-lenders will accept. Third, the collateral discipline: whether pre-shipment and post-shipment loans are structured against confirmed offtake, warehoused inventory, or receivables with enforceable rights across jurisdictions. Deals that clear these three tests reach close. Those that miss the 2026 investor due diligence standard co-lenders now apply stall in committee.
The Crecera / Latin America Export Finance Fund (LAEFF) transaction operationalized the commodity trade finance design this blog describes. Drawing on four decades of transactions across Emerging Markets, Delphos raised a US$50MM senior debt facility for Crecera, the LAEFF fund manager, expanding a portfolio of pre-shipment and post-shipment export loans to underserved agricultural and soft-commodity exporters.
Crecera – Senior Debt Facility (Latin America Export Finance Fund, LAEFF)
The facility reached more than 10,000 exporters across the four markets. The co-lender syndicate assembled around the senior facility. The fund manager originated across an agribusiness and soft-commodities pipeline no single financier was positioned to reach on its own. The transaction pattern is what near-shoring exporters and their fund partners can replicate today.
The trade realignment rewards exporters that reach institutional capital through the right commodity trade finance design, not those waiting for commercial banks to move first. Delphos structures DFI-anchored and co-lender commodity trade finance facilities that reach agribusiness and soft-commodity corporates that conventional creditors underserve, drawing on Capital Raising and Transaction Advisory capabilities built across more than 600 transactions and US$20B mobilized since 1987. The company works with export-oriented sponsors, corporates, and fund managers across Latin America positioning for the near-shoring cycle.
Contact Delphos to structure the capital that converts export opportunity into a financed position →
Commodity trade finance funds the physical purchase and sale of raw materials on short, self-liquidating tenors. Structured trade finance applies tailored risk-mitigation techniques for longer or more complex transactions, often blending pre-export, receivables, and collateral instruments. Both sit within the broader commodity finance discipline.
Compliance origination cost, cross-jurisdictional collateral enforcement, and small ticket sizes make the segment uneconomical for commercial banks. Documentation requirements often exceed what SME corporates can meet. Rejection rates run high at the smaller end of the market, which is the gap DFI-anchored commodity trade finance vehicles are built to fill.
A development finance institution provides a senior facility or guarantee that de-risks the pool. That senior commitment attracts co-lenders who would not extend individually. DFIs typically deploy through qualified fund managers to reach end-borrowers, bringing balance-sheet scale to segments too fragmented for direct engagement.
Pre-shipment export finance is working capital advanced before goods ship, enabling exporters to buy inputs and complete production against confirmed orders. Agricultural and soft-commodity corporates use it heavily, since harvest and processing cycles precede sale. Post-shipment finance funds the interval between shipment and buyer payment.
Brazil leads regional agricultural exports, followed by Argentina, with Uruguay, Colombia, and Peru as major contributors across soy, coffee, protein, and tropical fruit. Latin America and the Caribbean is the world's largest agricultural exporting region, and the LAEFF markets sit inside the region's core commodity trade corridors.
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