Editorial
Best Emerging Markets to Invest in 2026: How Tariffs Redrew the Map
October 5, 2026 - Tariff access and near-shore capture reordered the 2026 Emerging Markets ranking, making bankability rather than forecast returns the deciding measure.
Editorial

Institutional mandates expanded to include food security infrastructure after Paris Agreement commitments reshaped Development Finance Institution (DFI) and green bond eligibility definitions.
Four financing structures are available beyond standard agricultural debt, each with distinct qualification thresholds, lender profiles, and capital cost structures.
Development lenders assess climate qualification against four criteria: quantifiable impact, revenue predictability, governance standards, and capital stack design signaling institutional co-investment readiness.
A verified emissions baseline determines which capital structures a project can access, making it a structuring input, not a retrospective reporting requirement.
Climate qualification is determined by how a project is structured before lender engagement begins, not by the underlying agricultural activity itself.
Climate-smart agriculture financing in Emerging Markets has moved from a specialist development category to an institutional asset class, with green bonds, sustainability-linked loans, and blended structures now available to agri-projects that meet development lender and institutional qualification requirements. This blog maps the four structure types, the four qualification criteria development lenders apply, and the structuring decisions that determine access, written for agri-sponsors and corporates with established food production, processing, or distribution operations in Africa, SE Asia, and LATAM targeting expansion financing above US$10MM. Institutional capital with environmental mandates now treats qualifying food security assets as accessing a deeper capital stack than standard agricultural debt provides. Access to that stack is determined by how the project is structured.
Climate-smart agriculture financing is the class of institutional instruments, including green bonds, sustainability-linked loans, blended finance facilities, and carbon credit-linked structures, applied to agricultural projects that demonstrate quantifiable environmental impact, resilience outcomes, or reduced carbon output against a verified baseline. CSA pursues a triple goal: improving productivity, building resilience to weather volatility, and reducing emissions to advance sustainable agriculture in a warming world.
Agrifood systems generate roughly 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions and attract 7.2% of total climate finance, equaling just under US$95B annually. The World Bank has increased its annual investment in climate-smart agriculture eightfold to nearly US$3B since the Paris Agreement. The gap is not one of capital volume. Agri-projects that meet climate qualification criteria access a different and deeper capital pool than those structured against standard agricultural debt alone.
The agrifood investment landscape across LATAM, SE Asia, and Africa has been reshaped by two intersecting conditions: agricultural systems are both a major source of emissions and among the sectors most exposed to climate risk. That dual position placed food security infrastructure at the center of the adaptation finance agenda following the Paris Agreement, a convergence unfolding alongside how geopolitical fragmentation reshapes capital allocation across Emerging Markets more broadly. The structural result is that environmentally mandated capital now treats qualifying agri-projects as accepted recipients, not exceptions.
The mechanism behind the mandate convergence is institutional rather than market-led. Paris Agreement commitments required development lenders to align lending criteria with adaptation and mitigation outcomes. International Capital Market Association (ICMA) green bond frameworks expanded their use-of-proceeds definitions to include agrifood systems. Overall climate-related development finance grew 12% between 2022 and 2023, while finance for agrifood systems grew only 1% over the same period. The mandate expanded faster than deployment, which is precisely where the access opportunity sits.
Western Europe and East Asia together receive nearly three-fourths of all agrifood climate investment, while Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and SE Asia remain structurally underserved, a gap reflected in agricultural financing structures for LATAM exporters navigating freight and routing cost volatility on top of standard qualification requirements. Only 1.5% of global public climate finance is currently allocated to sustainable food systems.
Investment in agrifood systems must increase by nearly 40 times from 2019 and 2020 levels to align with a 1.5-degree development trajectory. That gap defines the scale of the structural imbalance that blended finance, labeled bond issuance, and sustainability-linked instruments were expanded to address.
An agricultural project in East Africa or SE Asia that reduces greenhouse gas emissions through improved inputs, builds climate resilience against weather volatility, or transitions from diesel-dependent operations to cleaner energy presents a qualifying climate impact case to a development lender, alongside the rural livelihoods tied to those financial returns. Sponsors with three to five years of operating track record in Emerging Markets are well positioned to access agri-climate capital when they build projects that qualify.
Four financing structures are now available to agri-climate sponsors in Emerging Markets beyond standard agricultural debt. Green bonds require defined environmental use of proceeds and sufficient project scale. Sustainability-linked loans adjust interest rate terms based on measured environmental performance. Blended finance facilities use concessional development capital to de-risk the stack for commercial lenders. Carbon credit-linked structures generate an ancillary revenue stream from verified carbon reductions. Each requires different project credentials and reaches a different lender profile.
IFC delivered US$24.6B in total climate finance in FY2025, of which US$8.1B came from its own account and US$16.5B was mobilized from third-party sources. Global Green, Social, Sustainability, and Sustainability-Linked (GSSS) bond issuance reached a record US$1T in 2024, 3% above the prior year.
The African Development Bank allocated US$5.5B to climate finance in 2024, representing 49% of all approvals, with 1.5M farmers accessing climate-smart technologies. 27 Emerging Markets sovereigns have issued labeled sustainable bonds totaling US$170.4B since 2016. The Green Climate Fund committed US$2.1B and the World Bank committed US$42B to climate-smart agriculture through 2022. The capital pool available to qualified projects is not hypothetical.
Standard agricultural debt is structured entirely against financial performance and collateral. A creditor assesses operating history, revenue predictability, and asset coverage. Environmental impact does not enter the underwriting framework. A dairy operation, rice processing facility, or agri-export business using this structure qualifies for one capital pool and no other.
Green bonds expand that access by adding a second qualification criterion: a quantifiable environmental impact with defined use of proceeds aligned with ICMA Green Bond Principles. Project scale typically needs to exceed US$50MM to make issuance economically viable, and development lender co-investment strengthens the case for borrowers without established bond market access.
Sustainability-linked loans operate on a different mechanism. In place of a defined use of proceeds, they require measurable environmental performance indicators, or key performance indicators (KPIs), tied to carbon-reduction or resource-efficiency targets. If a borrower meets agreed KPIs, the interest rate adjusts downward. This structure is more accessible than an ICMA-aligned bond issuance: minimum deal sizes typically begin at US$10MM, and it works within existing banking relationships without requiring the legal and disclosure infrastructure of a public issuance.
The table below compares the four financing structures against standard agricultural debt by lender profile, cost, qualification requirements, and project fit.
| Financing Structure | Lender Type | Cost | Qualification Criteria | Project Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Agricultural Debt | Commercial bank | Market rate | Financial performance, collateral | Established cash flow, collateral assets |
| Green Bond | Bond investors, development lenders | Competitive, below commercial | ICMA use of proceeds, US$50MM+ | Large-scale projects with defined environmental outcomes |
| Sustainability-Linked Loan | Commercial bank, development lender | Rate adjusts to KPI performance | Environmental KPIs, carbon monitoring, US$10MM+ | Projects with measurable performance metrics |
| Blended Finance Facility | Development lender plus commercial lender | Below-market blended rate | Development lender co-investment threshold, environmental alignment | Projects below commercial bankability threshold |
| Carbon Credit Structure | Specialist environmental fund, corporate buyer | Variable, revenue-linked | Accredited carbon verification (Verra VCS or Gold Standard) | Projects with quantifiable carbon reductions |
This structure operates by placing concessional development capital, whether a first-loss tranche, a guarantee, or a grant, into the capital stack alongside commercial debt. The concessional piece absorbs a disproportionate share of the downside risk, which changes the risk profile that commercial lenders see. A project that would not meet the return threshold for a commercial agricultural loan on its own can become bankable when a development lender absorbs the first position of loss exposure. The mechanism is one of collaboration between development mandates and private sector return requirements, not competition between them.
For agri-sponsors in Emerging Markets, this structure is the mechanism most directly connected to development lender relationships that make transactions across the region executable. Reviewing the blended finance structures active across LATAM, SE Asia, and Africa gives sponsors a working framework for which DFI partners are relevant to their capital stack design and what co-investment thresholds apply.
A project must satisfy four conditions before agri-climate capital becomes accessible: a quantifiable environmental impact measurable against a verified baseline, revenue predictability sufficient for the structure’s debt service requirements, governance standards meeting development lender thresholds, and a capital stack designed to signal co-investment readiness. Projects that lack a verified environmental baseline cannot be packaged for green bond issuance or sustainability-linked terms regardless of commercial viability. The sequencing matters as much as the criteria themselves.
Every US$1 invested in climate adaptation and resilience generates more than US$10 in economic benefits over a ten-year period, which establishes the financial rationale underlying development lender mandate requirements. Government nationally determined contributions (NDCs) collectively estimate an annual agrifood climate funding need of US$201.5B, less than one-fifth of the actual US$1.1T requirement. World Bank agriculture and food projects approved between FY22 and FY24 are expected to avert 174.5M tonnes of CO2 equivalent over their lifetimes.
The first criterion is quantifiable environmental impact. Without a verified carbon baseline or a resilience metric referenced against a recognized standard, a project cannot be categorized as qualifying under any institutional framework, a version of the DFI project readiness standards that apply across sectors, not only agriculture. The practical implication is that an MRV framework must be in place before a project approaches agri-climate lenders, not developed in parallel.
Revenue model sustainability is the second criterion. Qualifying structures carry their own debt service profiles: green bonds have covenant structures tied to use-of-proceeds compliance, and sustainability-linked loans have rate adjustment mechanisms linked to KPI performance. A project that demonstrates environmental impact but cannot demonstrate predictable, stress-tested cash flows will not advance through development lender credit committees.
The third criterion is governance and reporting standards. Development lenders require disclosure frameworks, environmental and social safeguard compliance, and independent auditing capacity. Most institutional lenders bundle technical assistance with financing for projects that require governance infrastructure, reducing sponsors’ compliance costs earlier in the process. Understanding what investors require at the documentation stage, and how impact fund requirements differ from commercial lender standards, allows sponsors to build governance infrastructure before lender engagement rather than under lender scrutiny.
“We have seen that the projects which reach financial close with DFI backing are the ones that demonstrate climate eligibility before they approach lenders, not after.” – Bart Turtelboom, Chairman & CEO of Delphos.
The fourth criterion is capital stack design. A project presenting to a development lender with a capital structure that carries no concessional tranche, no first-loss provision, and no co-investment architecture is asking the institution to act outside its operational framework. The capital stack is itself a signal. Sponsors who build the stack to reflect institutional alignment before approaching lenders reduce approval timelines and increase the probability of reaching close.
Carbon credits function as an additional revenue stream layered onto primary project cash flows. A project that generates verified carbon reductions through an accredited MRV system, whether Verra Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) or Gold Standard, can pre-sell those reductions to corporate buyers or use them to attract specialist environmental funds. The effect is an improvement in the debt service coverage ratio, which in turn opens access to concessional structures for projects that would otherwise sit below the threshold for capital.
Aceli’s concessional lending model supported 3,427 agri-SME loans totaling US$293MM in Africa as of March 2025, targeting a 9:1 leverage ratio. The emissions baseline is not a reporting requirement that follows project design. It is a structuring input that determines whether the project can access the capital stack it needs.
These three transactions represent a selection from the Delphos transaction record across Africa, SE Asia, and LATAM. Each reflects the same structuring logic: capital stack design built to meet DFI qualification criteria before lender engagement begins.
The capital exists, and the structures are defined. Most agri-sponsors in Emerging Markets are not accessing it because their projects are not built to qualify. Delphos works with agri-sponsors across Africa, SE Asia, and LATAM to deliver a climate qualification assessment, a capital stack designed to meet development lender requirements, and structured access to the agri-climate capital their projects merit. With 600+ transactions completed across Emerging Markets, Delphos brings the institutional relationships and structuring discipline that move agri-climate deals from qualification assessment to financial close, across Capital Raising and Transaction Advisory.
Climate-smart agriculture financing covers the four institutional structures described above, applied to agricultural projects that demonstrate measurable environmental impact against a verified baseline. These structures introduce qualification requirements that standard agricultural debt does not.
Two conditions apply: use of proceeds must align with ICMA Green Bond Principles, and project scale typically needs to reach at least US$50MM to make issuance economically viable. For Emerging Markets borrowers without established bond market access, development lender co-investment or institutional endorsement strengthens the qualification case.
Minimum deal sizes vary by instrument. Blended finance facilities are accessible from approximately US$5MM, sustainability-linked loans from US$10MM, and labeled bond issuance typically requires US$50MM or above. IFC engages directly from US$10MM. Individual farmers and cooperatives below direct DFI engagement thresholds access the same instrument set through domestic intermediaries carrying DFI on-lending mandates.
Verified carbon reductions through an accredited MRV system, such as Verra VCS or Gold Standard, can be pre-sold to corporate buyers or used to attract specialist environmental funds. The resulting improvement in debt service coverage opens access to concessional finance structures.
Timeline varies by structure. A sustainability-linked loan can reach close in three to six months. A development lender-backed concessional facility typically requires nine to eighteen months from initial engagement. Completing qualification and structuring before approaching lenders, instead of in parallel, removes the most common sources of delay.
A standard agricultural loan is structured against financial performance and collateral only. Blended finance layers concessional development capital, whether a first-loss tranche, grant funding, or a guarantee, alongside commercial debt. This reduces risk exposure for commercial lenders, lowers overall cost of capital, and enables projects that would not reach commercial bankability on their own.
Active institutions include IFC (global, US$10MM+ minimum), AfDB (US$5.5B allocated to climate finance in 2024), the Asian Development Bank for SE Asia, DFC for US government-backed transactions, and the Green Climate Fund for adaptation-focused structures.
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